- Market Data Approach
Nikkei 225 Forecast for 2021 Is Between 25,000 and 29,500
Market participants forecast that the Nikkei 225 will fluctuate between 25,000 and 29,500 in 2021, according to the QUICK Monthly Survey (Equity) conducted at the beginning of 2021. Although the spread of the new coronavirus and concerns about inflation in the U.S. are risk factors, corporate earnings in Japan are expected to rise.
When asked to forecast the Nikkei 225's highest and lowest prices in 2021, the averages of the responses were 29,464 and 24,985, respectively. 44% of the respondents answered that the highest price would be in December, while the lowest prices were predicted for March (19%) and February and December (14%).
As for risk factors faced by those investing in Japanese stocks in 2021, half of the respondents chose the "Spread of new coronavirus, delays in development and spread of vaccines." Concerns about "Inflation and rising long-term interest rates in the U.S." and a "Sharp drop in U.S. stocks" also attracted high levels of attention. The top risk factor in Japan was the "Declining support for the Suga administration and political turmoil." On the other hand, domestic corporate earnings of all listed companies are expected to recover, with 42% of respondents anticipating a "10-30% increase in RP (recurring profit)" and 41% expecting a "30-50% increase in RP" for FY2021.
Respondents to the survey are asked to forecast a closing price every month. The figure for the end of January is 27,131 on average, representing the sixth consecutive month of increase. With the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds hovering above 1%, the number of respondents who cited interest rate trends as a factor in stock price fluctuations increased sharply. For example, a securities firm said it would be "watching to see how much the Nasdaq falls as U.S. interest rates rise." This indicates that attention is being given to how rising interest rates will affect stock prices.
The survey was conducted among 214 people, including managers of domestic institutional investors, and the number of respondents was 120. The survey was conducted between 5 and 7 January 2021.
QUICK Data Factory（QUICK Monthly Survey）
Since its founding in 1971, QUICK has become Japan's largest financial information vendor, and has developed an information infrastructure that supports Japan's securities and financial markets. It delivers high-value global market information from a fair and impartial perspective to a wide range of customers including securities firms, banks, institutional investors and corporations.See More