Exploring the Future Five Years from Now: Growth Expectations

The impact of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus is about to bring major changes to our society and our ways of doing business. Since May 2020, Nikkei Business Publications has been conducting a series of surveys of Japanese businesspeople (more than 8,000 in total) with the aim of exploring from different angles how the future will be different five years from now. The results unveil the rapid change of mindset among respondents induced by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Consider industry sector growth over the next five years, for example. The industry sectors surveyed are as follows: automobiles, machinery & heavy industry, electrical & electronic equipment, precision instruments & medical equipment, materials, daily necessities & cosmetics, food, pharmaceuticals, construction, real estate, energy, logistics & transportation, finance, retail, wholesale & trading companies, IT, telecommunications, education, media & advertising, travel & tourism, entertainment, medical & welfare services and central/local governments & municipalities.

In May 2020, after the first state of emergency had been lifted in Japan, we asked the respondents whether each of the above industry sectors would grow or shrink over the next five years. Surprisingly, despite the spread of infections, there were three industry sectors that were expected to grow by over 90% of the respondents - "telecommunications," "IT" and "precision instruments & medical equipment."

"Telecommunications" and "IT" showed more or less the same results. The most likely reason is the rapid shift from face-to-face communication at work, at school and in private to online interaction, due to the physical restrictions that have been imposed upon people. Similarly, many predicted strong growth for the "precision instrument & medical equipment" sector due to a posited surge of demand for related products amidst the pandemic.

On the other hand, the industry sectors that were the most expected to shrink over the next five years were "real estate," "travel & tourism," "construction" and "wholesale & trading companies."

As of May 2020, Japanese businesspeople were forecasting that the "real estate" sector would be hit the hardest by COVID-19 over the next five years. Probably, many of them thought that restrictions imposed on people moving from one point to another would have a strong negative impact on the industry. The "travel & tourism," "construction" and "wholesale & trading companies" sectors followed, all of which have been seriously affected by the plummeting numbers of incoming foreigners amid immigration restrictions.

Nikkei BP Intelligence Group will continue to make fixed-point observations of changes in the consciousness of businesspeople in Japan and follow up on the directions in which each of the industry sectors is moving. Details of this survey are introduced in the book "Smart City 2025: Future Scenario Survey" published by Nikkei Business Publications on December 25, 2020.

This report was compiled by Tomoko Ueno, Future Business Research Team, Nikkei BP Intelligence Group.

For further details, please contact:
Nikkei Business Publications, Inc.
http://www.nikkeibp.com

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